Shanghai aluminum is still dilemma

Bingte Futures Analyst Wei Hongjie, after analyzing the trend of the Shanghai Aluminum Futures Group on March 21-25, said that Shanghai Aluminum’s center of gravity has shifted downwards and the short-term is still a dilemma. Last week (March 21--25) Shanghai Aluminum’s main contract price gradually shifted downwards. The Shanghai Aluminum Index gradually covered the Yinxian long lower shadow area on the 18th, with a simultaneous reduction in open interest and trading volume. Again tends to be lighter. The aluminum futures price fell sharply due to the sharp rise in the US dollar index. After the Lunar aluminium price returned to the small platform area of ​​1920 US dollars at the beginning of the month, there was a slight pause. On the 24th, the inverted hammer Xiaoyang Line even confirmed the significance of breaking the 1950 US dollar line, so that next week (March 28-- April 1) The price of Lumium aluminum futures should have the opportunity of inertia to fall, and Lian’s aluminum futures price tends to deteriorate in the middle and short-term due to the formation of a triple negative in the form of an arc below $2,000. Once the $1900 area on the weekly week is closed, the aluminum price may fall again to test the weekly support level since the second half of 2004, although this has not damaged Len Aluminum since the second half of 2004. The upward movement of large-scale channels has greatly extended the price adjustment process and time, which further intensified the inhibitory effect on the price of Shanghai Aluminum. This week, Shanghai aluminum stocks began to reverse the continuous rise since the beginning of the year, indicating that the willingness to save value after the domestic contract price of Shanghai aluminum fell back to 16800-16600 yuan has eased, and Shanghai Aluminum’s cost-stabilizing effect has shown a stagflation effect. In the second quarter, the domestic electrolytic aluminum export volume declined significantly, indicating that the decline in the export power of domestic enterprises after the adjustment of the domestic policies and the suppression of aluminum production expansion should be counted as good news. With the price of imported alumina continuing to rise, Shanghai Aluminum's current price is still in a dilemma. This situation will continue to test the confidence of investors before the price of Lum Aluminium fails to stabilize, and the support for the recovery of prices in the latter period will depend on the speed at which consumer demand rebounds. Shanghai Aluminum operation, short-term opportunities are not large, it is recommended to continue to wait patiently.