Analysis of the trend of the first half of the national furniture industry in 2014

1. National macroeconomic situation According to industry analysts, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of the year was 26.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Industrial production grew steadily. The industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 8.8% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points higher than that of the first quarter; the growth rate of fixed-asset investment slowed down. The fixed-asset investment in the first half of the year was 21.28 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%. The growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter; the market sales grew steadily, the retail sales of consumer goods above designated size was 6,210.2 billion yuan, up 9.8%; the growth rate of import and export turned from negative to positive, exports were 106.19 billion US dollars, up 0.9%, and imports were 959 billion. The growth rate was 1.5%; the consumer price was basically stable, up 2.3% year-on-year, and the increase was the same as the first quarter. In general, the national economy in the first half of this year was generally stable and stable, creating a good environment for the development of the furniture industry. 2. Research on the industry related to the furniture industry The development of the furniture industry needs to be considered from the whole industry chain and market demand, involving real estate, raw and auxiliary materials and other related industries. In the first half of the year, the national real estate development investment was 4.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and the growth rate dropped by 2.7 percentage points from the first quarter. The sales area of ​​commercial housing nationwide was 484 million square meters, down 6.0% year-on-year. National commercial housing sales were 3.11 trillion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year. The growth rate of investment in the real estate industry continued to slow down, and the decline in sales continued to expand. Wood is the most widely used raw material in the furniture industry. From the domestic timber market, timber prices were basically stable in the first half of the year, and imported timber prices were at a high level, but the increase was lower than domestic timber. Furniture-related industries, including wood-based panels, furniture coatings and rubber compounds, furniture surface decoration materials, furniture hardware and accessories, leather and soft furniture materials, etc., have entered a period of great development, which provides important for the steady development of the furniture industry. stand by. 3. Favorable factors for industry development (1) New urbanization construction, shantytown renovation In March 2014, the “National New Urbanization Planning (2014-2020)” was announced, which will profoundly affect urban planning, real estate development, and furniture. Impact. In 2013, China's urbanization rate reached 53.7%, but the “population of households” reached 289 million people. Therefore, the “household urbanization rate” is only about 35.7%. China's urbanization still has a long way to go. For every 1 percentage point increase in urbanization rate, the per capita annual consumption expenditure of urban residents will increase by 2%. National consumption will increase by 18.8%, and the proportion of household consumption to GDP will increase by 6.6 percentage points. Therefore, the construction of new urbanization will bring huge business opportunities to the furniture industry. In addition, China has issued a notice to accelerate the renovation of shanty towns (endangered houses) in 2012. This year's State Council executive meeting once again emphasized the acceleration of shantytown renovation, and participation in shantytown renovation, old city renovation, affordable housing and urbanization. The listed company gives policy and financial support. This will comprehensively advance the progress of shantytown renovation. It is reported that in 2014, it plans to renovate more than 4.7 million shanty towns, and it is estimated that 15 million sets will be completed by 2017. By 2020, it is estimated that a total of 37.6 million sets of shanty towns will be rebuilt, and 100 million people will be moved out of shanty towns and urban villages. The large-scale housing after the renovation of the shanty town will give rise to a huge demand for furniture, which has become a big advantage for the furniture industry. (2) The continuous promotion of the modern service industry to the furniture industry Modern service industry can reduce the variable cost of manufacturing, improve production efficiency and enhance the competitive advantage of manufacturing. In the current developed countries of the world, the trend of “manufacturing service” has been formed. In the added value of manufacturing industry, an increasing proportion comes from the service industry, not the manufacturing process itself. In the field of furniture, the development of modern service industry enables furniture companies to hand over service links to service-oriented enterprises or service-oriented talents, which not only reduces the production and operation costs of enterprises, but also contributes to the professionalization of all aspects of the enterprise and promotes the improvement of labor productivity. The realization of social division of labor has accelerated the upgrading of the entire industrial chain. At the same time, the continuous development of the manufacturing industry has also led to a rapid increase in demand in the service industry, which has led to a positive interaction between the service industry and the manufacturing industry. Therefore, the modern service industry has continued to promote the progress of the furniture industry. (3) Separate second child policy, marriage boom, and the promotion of residents' income growth to the industry At the end of 2013, the “Separate Second Child” policy was officially opened. It is estimated that China will add 1 million to 2 million people every year, and the population will increase. Promote the rising demand for furniture consumption; at the same time, the post-80s population has entered the peak of marriage, and the continuous marriage tide has spawned new housing demand and furniture product purchase demand; the party’s 18th National Congress pointed out that by 2020 The per capita income of urban and rural residents will be doubled compared with 2020. The double income will stimulate new consumption power, promote the release of improved demand, and drive the continued sales of furniture products. 4. Pressures and Challenges of Industry Development (1) The industry has changed from high-speed development to low-speed development. China's furniture industry has experienced rapid development in the 30 years after the reform and opening up, creating a miracle in the world. At present, China is in the period of economic growth shift, structural adjustment and pain, and the early policy digestive period. The pace of development of the furniture industry is consistent with the national economic situation, and it will also change from high-speed development to medium-low speed development. The industrial restructuring of the furniture industry has begun a few years ago. In this transition period, how to break through the bottleneck and gain new development momentum has become an important goal for furniture enterprises to adjust their development strategies. Under this pressure, some enterprises have undergone transformation and upgrading. At first glance, some companies were forced to eliminate. (2) The impact of national reform on the industry The reform of the tax reform system has adapted to the needs of China's economic development and will have a certain impact on the economy and profits of China's furniture enterprises. After the reform, the enterprise can add the cost input tax to the value-added tax for deduction. However, because the VAT rate is higher than the business tax rate, furniture companies can increase the direct cost of deductible to reduce the VAT generated. This change requires furniture companies to standardize the financial system, do a good job of internal cost management and control, and reduce the impact of tax reform on corporate profits. Decentralization and decentralization are the key to deepening government reform and accelerating the transformation of government functions. Up to now, China has cancelled 468 items such as decentralized administrative examination and approval. This also provides a relaxed policy environment for the entrepreneurial, production and operation of furniture enterprises based on small and medium-sized enterprises. (3) New changes in the environmental protection policy The “Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Comprehensively Deepening the Reform of Some Major Issues” pointed out that it is necessary to implement a system of paid use of resources and an ecological compensation system. The revised draft of the Environmental Protection Law was adopted at the 8th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 12th National People's Congress in April this year and will be implemented on January 1, 2015. The new environmental protection law stipulates illegal discharge of pollutants, is fined and punished, and is ordered to make corrections. If it refuses to make corrections, it shall be punished continuously according to the original penalty amount. It also clearly stipulates that the country demarcates the ecological protection red line in key ecological function areas, ecological environment sensitive areas and vulnerable areas, and implements strict protection. The revised environmental protection law has increased the punishment. For furniture enterprises that have polluted environment and violate regulations, the new environmental protection law will restrict this behavior, forcing enterprises to improve production processes, meet emission standards, and enhance awareness of energy conservation and emission reduction. (4) Transformation of national policies In the early stage of industrialization in China, the excessive economic development relied on expanding the scale of investment and material input in exchange for economic benefits. This kind of extensive development has continuously increased the pressure on environmental resources, forming a phenomenon that some enterprises have low technological content and long-term low-end in the industrial chain, which hinders China's international competitiveness. Therefore, it is necessary to encourage industrial enterprises to change from extensive to intensive to an important direction of current reform. This change requires furniture companies to make full use of the integration of industrialization and informatization, from resource consumption to resource-intensive and environmentally-friendly industries. In the direction of local finance and industrial planning, subject to the impact of land scarcity, the local government's management policy for land use is more inclined to industries with high output per unit area and large profits and taxes. The furniture industry is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, with a large area and relatively low output. It is gradually restricted by some local policies and forced to move out of the city center, facing greater policy pressure. Second, the basic situation of the furniture industry 1, the technical level is improving fast, but the development is uneven According to the understanding of the reporters of the hotel market today, the overall technical level of the Chinese furniture industry has been rapidly improved, and some well-known enterprises have mastered the most advanced production in the world. Technology and technology have basically met the needs of the market and have a certain influence in the international arena. However, it is undeniable that the development of China's furniture industry, which is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, is not balanced. Most small and micro enterprises lack core technologies, fail to achieve brand management, have low concentration, have poor anti-risk ability, and have low labor productivity and profitability. The ability is not strong. Due to the lack of correct judgment on the international market and the implementation of international standards, some small enterprises have frequently encountered export and are forced to adopt price competition strategies, but they have frequently been blocked by trade barriers; due to environmental protection, such as plagiarism and plagiarism, Both sides of the domestic and foreign markets are blocked. In the past two years, there have been some phenomenon that the foundry furniture enterprises and small and micro enterprises that provide supporting products for well-known enterprises have gone from bad to worse and are forced to close down. 2. The development of large-scale enterprises is in stark contrast to the small and medium-sized enterprises. The development trend of large-scale furniture enterprises in China is good, and the number of furniture enterprises above designated size is also increasing. From January to May 2014, there were 4,842 furniture enterprises above designated size, an increase of 283 over the same period last year, an increase of 6%. From January to May, the company's main business income was 264.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.67%. The average income of individual enterprises continued to grow. The average monthly main business income of individual enterprises in January-May 2014 reached 10.91 million yuan. The annual revenue of a single company will exceed 130 million yuan. In the five years from 2009 to 2013, the proportion of the main business income of large enterprises in the furniture industry increased from 6.88% to 15.78%, the total profit ratio increased from 10.39% to 19.44%, and the total assets increased from 8.17% to 21.33%. The increase is large, indicating that such enterprises have a leading role in the industry; the economic aggregate of medium-sized enterprises has shown a trend of expansion, playing an important role in optimizing corporate structure and increasing industrial concentration. From the perspective of profitability, from January to May, the cumulative profit of the company was 13.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%. Compared with the cumulative output of such enterprises, the total output was 301,168,900, an increase of only 3.87%, which was significantly lower than the increase in profit, indicating that the output was In the case of stability, the benefits of enterprises above designated size have improved and their profitability has improved. In terms of the improvement of labor productivity of large enterprises, in 2013, the average labor productivity of all enterprises above designated size in the furniture industry increased by more than 5% year-on-year, but the average employment number showed a negative growth. This situation is indicative of the change in the mode of economic growth. The economic growth mode has undergone a qualitative change, and the whole industry has entered an era of relying on improving labor productivity to achieve economic growth. 3. Rapid development of customized furniture At present, personalized design and rational use of space have become the basic requirements for consumers to purchase furniture products. Customized furniture can fully meet this requirement and has been widely praised in recent years. Some large domestic custom furniture manufacturers have developed rapidly. There have been a number of large-scale home furnishing companies such as the Souya wardrobe, which is customized for the whole house furniture, the use of information-based custom-made production, and the custom-made development from cabinets to kitchens, wardrobes, wooden doors and other multi-category furniture. These enterprises have an annual output value of 1 billion or even billions. They have introduced large-scale customized production equipment, applied information technology to manufacturing, adopted digital management technology, shortened the production cycle, and fully integrated modern technology with traditional manufacturing. It is an important embodiment of the integration of informationization and industrialization. Third, the industry's export situation is grim 1. The traditional export market is flat or down. The growth momentum of emerging countries is insufficient. From January to May 2014, the furniture industry's cumulative exports totaled US$20.46 billion, down 6.

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